2000 - Year of the
Dragon
1) Outlooks for Millennium
Dragon's Year - 2000
Personally, I am more
optimistic then before in my outlook into the near future. Apart
from the economical recovery of South-east Asia. Once of the most
important factors that promises continuing global growth and
stability is the entry of China into the WTO.
China¡¦s entry into the WTO
is of great significance because it mends our disintegrated world.
During the last decades, world power was balanced in a triangular
equilibrium, amongst America, Russia and China. After the collapsed
of Russia in the late 80s, the world had to find a new balance
between the two remaining superpowers - America and China.
According to the Tai-Ji
diagram, we known that equilibrium between two is more difficult to
established as compared with a trinity. The dividing line of the two
equal halves of Yin and Yang is not a straight line
but a curve, shaped like the alphabet "S". In a
three-party partnership, differences in opinion can be easily solved
with a vote of majority. In a two-party scenario, good
decision-making is often tempered with some measure of
give-and-take.
Hence, it took 13 to 14 years
of give-and-take before America and China could agree and thus a
compromise found, much like the S-shaped delineation in the Tai-Ji
diagram. Thus, after China¡¦s entry into WTO, the world can said to
have found a new balance with lesser obstacles as a result of
territorial balance. With lesser obstacles or obstructions ahead,
everything is going to be smoother - at least in the commercial
sense.
Our world is now also much
smaller, due to high and advanced technologies. E-commerce and
knowledge-based economies will be the future driving forces. IT does
not only travel faster than before but its accessibility is indeed
revolutionary. And of course, the internet is another amazing
offshoot of IT. (Remember how the speed of IT caused the outflow of
funds and crippled the financial standing of South-east Asia?). All
these tell us that the world is moving ahead at a much faster pace
than before. The speed and pace of change in the near future can be
startling to many and somewhat unbelievable.
Hence, I call upon all of my
friends out there, especially leaders of industries and seasoned
businessmen, to adjust their "Working Clock" mechanism
(velocity) to a faster pace so as to adapt to the New Millennium.
The norms and cycles that beset each and every industry must be
renewed and adjusted, or else; they can be stumbling blocks to
advancement and even cause failures. It is time to relook at the
following: the 5-year cycle of the electronic industries, the 3-year
cycle of the stock market, the 7-year cycle of the property. Market
strategists speculated that the Down Jones would crash as early as
mid-1997, then riding at a height of 9,700 points. They were proven
wrong. On the contrary, it went up to a blistering 12,000 points by
end 1999.
In the financial arena,
changes too are taking place which reflect and the findings of the
I-Ching. Take equity trading as an example: the settlement cycle of
T+5 days, where T equates to the trade date, no longer sit well in
the present-day scripless and electronic environment. In the current
scenario where financial channels seem to be seamless and the flow
of funds nearly instantaneous, it is wise that our exchange will
effectively, on March 15th, 2000, adopt the settlement
cycle of T+3. This will effectively lower settlement risks and raise
efficiency. Adopting T+3 is not the final step. There are already
talks to move towards T+1 or even to a T+0 platform.
Apart from the "Working
Clock", many of us will also need to adjust our
"Biological Clocks", so as to stay competent in order to
live in our "Sleepless Singapore" or else we will be
outwitted in no time.
Time waits for no men. Let us
prepare ourselves and embrace these phenomenal changes.
Finally, if we are successful
in breeding technopreneurs like Bill Gates, then within 3 to 5
years, do not be surprised that our local stock index rise to an
unbelievable level. But for next year, the Year of the Dragon, the
advice from I-Ching is to fly low than fly high. Thus, be careful,
the Dow Jones index might heed the advice of the I-Ching and take a
correction next year
I wish all of you a very happy
millennium year ahead and success in all your endeavours.
