2004 - Year of the
Horse
Master Ong's
fengshui outlooks for year 2002 - Year of the Horse
It was a gloomy year
right from the start. Inconsequence GDP recovery curve varying from
¡¥L¡¦, ¡¥V¡¦ and ¡¥U¡¦ was anticipated by Local Economic Review Team,
disclosed by Senior Minister Lee. The final verdict was a ¡¥\¡¦. The
forecast for next year seem to be mystifies by last year inaccuracy.
The variable component of ¡¥Uncertainties¡¦, had widen the gap of
between ¡V 2 to + 2 percent growth for next year. Ironically, that is
4 percent of deviation!
In retrospect, my
prediction from the Book of Changes - I-Ching, that was also posted
in our website for the year 2001 denotes a conflicting scenario that
symbolize unstable global situation. This prediction had won me many
appraisals, especially from net surfers after September 11.
On the equity front,
one of my most honorable Fengshui¡¦s talk for last year was speaking
to the members of the AsiaStockWatch.Com ¡V Will the bull return in
2001? Despite that many were optimistic, I had signaled otherwise,
and advised the organizer to conduct more talks in educating members
how to sell ¡¥Short¡¦.
Member were also
warned to be more prudent and I had shared with them the personal
strategy of ¡§Buying Durian¡¦. That was ¡§No point buying a whole
basket of lousy durians when one good durian can settle your
appetite.¡¨
My global Fengshui¡¦s
forecast from the I-Ching for the year of the horse 2002 is going to
be bleak with many uncertainties, especially for the Singapore
economy. From Fengshui viewpoint, the global situation is affected
by a complex interplay of Yin & Yang forces that is taking place
invisibly within next few years. We are in the mid of this
¡¥transition¡¦ period of changes that is similar to that of the
changing seasons within a year. During this time, the weather in
inconsistent and changes drastically, hence, it is advisable to
leave home with an overcoat or a cardigan. Also remember to buy good
durian one at a time!
The invisible changes
that are taking place above us orchestrate a new changing pattern
and it is already visible from earthly happenings so far. Such as:
the mergers of industries; the changes to be brought by the China¡¦s
WTO membership; the emergence of the new EURO dollars, etc. All
these extraordinary happenings are indication and restructuring a
new course for the economical and financial world by and large while
we move ahead into the new millennium.
In the field of my
work, I had the blessing to travel into both economical superpowers
of the world: US & China. I had witnessed the conversion of Shanghai
Pudong from a slump to its modern status since 1989. I had done many
fengshui works in Silicon Valley, including Nesdaq listed companies.
I first highlighted the benefits of China¡¦s WTO membership in my
year 2000 prediction which some feel that it may be premature. Yes,
a full integration into global economy still has a long way to go
for China. Political arithmetic is also unlikely to change in near
future, but have not the self-driven Chinese economy proved itself,
with or without their entrance into the WTO. My advice, if you wish
to bet on China, then cultivate early! Many local companies that
had invested in China are beginning to yield good results since last
year.
There are reports
that signs of an eventual recover are already beginning to emerge
suggesting that America will get out of recession by next year. I
had always been skeptical of such reports. The question of
commercial obligation versus professional integrity had held me back
to read with contemplation and reservation. However, we know that
the interest of an Equity analyst and Economic analyst do differ in
their objectives. Equity being the horse and the later being the
cart. Equities rally on psychology and the later on fundamentals.
Has the fundamental bottom out or fund managers trying to compound
their losses with optimism?
In facts, from my
recent visit, the fundamental economy is still very weak in America.
Famous restaurants are deserted. Hotels business is down with 30 to
45 percents occupancy rate. Encompass with the continuing terrorist
threat that I personally think will never cease. Despite that it was
a great strategy for the American to ¡§blanket party¡¨ the Talebans so
that lives losses is a mystery, yet time will prevail the secret
total number of being killed. Actions beget actions. This is the law
of Karma. Hunting the first culprit will bear no result and has no
significant, unless a heavenly court can be found on earth.
Otherwise, we must be aware and warned that even the American win
this war, it is far from over and indeed signifies part of the
events that is leading into the 3rd World War. In
conclusion, we may continue to expect contradictory reports from
analysts and face constant threats that will disrupt world economy
and cause distortion to the equity and financial market.
All these scenarios
correspond with the controlling I-Ching Hexagram for next year of
the (wooden) Horse 2002 - OBSTRUCTION. The image of this hexagram is
¡§Water above the Mountain.¡¨
The Hexagram denotes
difficulties ahead. In ancient context, mountain obstructs footpath
and water is difficult and dangerous to cross. The I-Ching advises
that in time of difficulties, it is essential to take advises from
the wise man and seek helps from others. I-Ching further adds that
the ability to halt in time of difficulties is a smart action; and
stopping would cause termination. Thus, moving steadily forward
(under the advises of the wise and seeking helps from others) is the
way to clear obstacles and overcome difficulties. Remember! Market
look forward and not back!
The competition from
the China is indeed threatening to our economy. Small and medium
enterprises must realize the important in upgrading their products,
innovate more quickly and increase their efficiency in order to
steer forward. Domestically, competition from foreign workers can be
a blessing of disguise, unless we are spur to perform better through
reformation and self-upgrading.
The Chinese saying
goes: ¡§A hungry snake can eat a elephant¡¨. Regrettably, we are
happily munching on our goodies!
Master Ong wishes
one and all a Happy & Prosperous Chinese New Year!
