According to the Chinese Zodiac Calendar, 2004 is
the Year of the Monkey, typically a clever, witty and inventive
creature that is also quick and sociable ¡V all of which seem to
promise a swinging New Year.
But this may not be the case warns Master Ong
Thiam Peng of I-Ching Geomancy Centre. He says that the monkey for
2004 is likely to be a very selfish and jealous one, especially on
the materialistic and monetary fronts. Perhaps this is natural as
2003 was a difficult year and so the natural instincts of survival
and looking after oneself has surfaced amongst many of us.
One area where we could see traits of the 2004
Monkey rearing its "selfish and jealous" head is in the area of
international trade. The US could step up its protectionism in the
run-up to the Presidential elections next year. Also, continued
weakness of the US dollar and the threat of the Euro replacing the
greenback as the preferred currency for international transactions,
may cause the US to retaliate to protect its self-interest.
Master Ong is no ordinary feng shui expert. Last
year, he correctly predicted that a war would break out between Iraq
and the US but he said that it would be a short war and it would
create opportunities for traders to make money. This was borne out
as equity markets corrected sharply last year, weighed down by the
Middle East conflict and concerns about SARS. The sell-off created
opportunities and those who bought into equities in March/April 2003
were handsomely rewarded in subsequent months.
Looking into the year ahead, Master Ong says that
it may not be as dandy as some would like to believe. Yes, the
Monkey has crossed the dangerous river successfully, but Master Ong
warns that its tail is still wet. As such, he reckons that the Year
of the Monkey is likely to remain riddled with uncertainties and
risks, including the possibility of an armed conflict between China
and Taiwan that could send markets lower around the March/April
period. Also elections are due in several Asian countries and the
accompanying uncertainties could spook investors.
So for those looking to invest in equity markets,
Master Ong advises that they remain nimble and not be too greedy
i.e. look to take profits when prices rise and ideally buying on
sharp dips that could come with bad news like terrorist attacks and
political uncertainties. Master Ong reckons that terrorist attacks
and geopolitical uncertainties will remain a permanent fixture for
many years to come and will not go away for a long time ¡V perhaps
even in the next ten years.
Given that the Year of the Monkey is likely to be
a year of uncertainties, Master Ong advises against investing into
stock markets too aggressively. He says that investors should also
hold some cash and put some of their money into less risky products.
According to the Book of Changes, better known as I-Ching, being
modest or adopting the virtues of humility is a desired route in the
Year of the Monkey.
Despite his cautious outlook, Master Ong says
that investments should do better in the Year of the Monkey compared
with the Year of the Goat in 2003. This is because businesses are
likely to have a better year as the global economy improves.
So while throwing caution to the wind may not be
wise, remember also that on the flip side, uncertainties could
present money making opportunities for those who are nimble.
