Year of the Rat: Dangers lurk ahead
Fengshui
expert, Master Ong Thiam Peng of I-Ching Geomancy Centre, warns that
investors should exercise caution in the Year of the Rat as the
controlling hexagram of the I-Ching
indicates inherent dangers lurking ahead.
He
said that according to the hexagram called ¡¥anticipation¡¦
of the I-Ching ¡V
China¡¦s ancient book of wisdom, the embodiment of Taoist
philosophy ¡V shows the image of ¡§thunder above the ground¡¨,
which implies that investors are likely to be shocked intermittently
by market moving events during the Rat Year, and they have to brace
themselves for significant volatility.
Given
the uncertainties looming in the horizon, Master Ong suggested that
investors stay in areas they know best and avoid treading into new
and unfamiliar terrain.
Good track record
Master
Ong is no ordinary Fengshui Master. He is well regarded and has a
good track record in making predictions about economies and stock
markets. For instance, he predicted last year that stock market
investors will face a very bumpy ride, but that regional markets
would end the year higher compared to when they started off. This
was borne out as concerns about the U.S. sub-prime crisis caused
extreme market volatility, but regional bourses still managed to
close the year on a higher note.
He
had also predicted at the start of last year that the ST Index would
head higher and rise to at least 3,680 during the year. The ST Index
did surpass that level and rose to a high of 3,875, before
succumbing to profit taking to close the year at 3,482.
Master
Ong was also right on his predictions about the property market. At
the onset of last year, he was positive about the outlook and he
said that the strong local bourse and economy would help to propel
the property market to new heights, especially in the high-end
segment. Again, last year proved to be a very good year for the
local property market with new record prices set, especially in the
high-end segment.
Be prepared for ¡§thunder flashes¡¨
Providing more details about the Year of the Rat in
2008, Master Ong said that it is symbolised by two elements: the
stem and branch elements with ¡§earth sitting on top of water¡¨;
and the phonetic element of fire - with the fire coming from
¡§thunder flashes¡¨.
He
said that according to the cycle of production and destruction
associated with the elements, earth is the destroyer of water. As
such, social fabric can be unstable, with underlying tensions and
confrontation between nations or households. Fortunately, the
phonetic element, namely the ¡§thunder flashes¡¨, denotes quick
happenings and equally quick endings.
The start of a new 12-year cycle
Master
Ong said that the Rat is the first animal in the Chinese zodiac, and
the year represents the beginning of a new 12-year cycle.
¡§This
new beginning is reflected in the many major elections happening
around the world, in countries like the United States , Pakistan ,
Taiwan and Malaysia ,¡¨ said Master Ong.
¡§The
outcome of these elections will definitely affect the global
political arena and the anticipation
of these outcomes will cause uncertainties and market volatility.¡¨
Master
Ong cited the U.S. Presidential elections, which will only take
place at the end of this year, as example.
He
said: ¡§The world, which is heavily dependant on the United States
both economically and politically, will be in state of a flux until
a new leader is installed.¡¨
However
on a more positive note, Master Ong noted that in the Chinese
zodiac, the Rat of 2008 is a lucky one, blessed with food and
shelter and is known as ¡§Rat of the Storehouse¡¨. As such, while
the Singapore economy may slow down, it will still continue to
perform well.
Sanguine on soft commodities
Master
Ong highlighted soft commodities as a specific theme for investors
to keep an eye on in the Rat Year. He said that prices of these
commodities will continue to surge as demand is growing rapidly,
aided in part by the strong global demand for bio-fuel.
Master
Ong also said that the water element in the Year of the Rat can
wreak havoc. With global warming and sea water levels rising, he
expects water-related natural disasters, as well as climatic
changes. These will threaten crops and raise commodity prices.
Final words of wisdom
Summarising
his take on the Year of the Rat, Master Ong said that investors
ought to be careful with their investments and brace themselves for
volatility and even sharp pullbacks, even though the local stock
market may scale to new heights between the third and last quarters
of the year.
He
said that investors commonly believe that a small nation like
Singapore will catch a cold when the U.S. sneezes. However, he said
that Singapore ¡¦s economy should still do well, as it has
restructured itself significantly over the last few years. As such,
he does not see the local economy being too badly affected even if
the U.S. slips into a recession.
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