The
outlook for 2010, the Year of the Wooden Tiger
by
Master Ong Thiam Peng
The
Tiger is a fearful animal, will it pounce in with anything inauspicious
for 2010? Some say it is a 'metal
tiger' or ¡¥white tiger¡¦ and will it bring bad luck?
Precisely
speaking, the tiger of 2010 belongs to the wood element and not metal, it
is a ¡¥tiger that is out of the mountain¡¦ and not a ¡¥white tiger¡¦
which is associated with negativism. However, a tiger does not leave his
comfort zone unless its habitat is affected by circumstances such as fire
or flood or when the food supply is insufficient. Thus, we can expect more
disturbances in the world in 2010. Two Chinese prediction instruments have
indicated major water-related disasters, bringing the possibility of the
destruction of crops cultivated during the Year of the Tiger. Thus, I
would conclude that the Year of the Tiger to be associated with the word: DISCOMFORT.
What
about the I-Ching hexagram? You correctly indicated that 2009 to be a year
of ¡¥pollination¡¦
or ¡¥germination¡¦ and you said that according to the I-Ching, 2010 will
be a year of good
harvests. Does this still stand?
Not exactly. I did
equate 2009 with the scenario of ¡¥pollination¡¦
or ¡¥germination¡¦. The
financial tsunami of 2008 had destroyed most of the crops on earth and the
land has to be reseeded in order for new sprouts to grow and mature.
During the Year of the Ox (2009), pollination will have taken place
followed by the blossoming of flowers and perhaps, there can be a harvest
this year, 2010.
However,
the controlling hexagram for the Year of the Tiger, 2010 is ¡¥coming together¡¦ and not ¡¥already together¡¦. This suggests
that the ¡¥pollination¡¦ or
¡¥germination¡¦ process is
only moving into its final phase, which means that we can expect the year
to be progressive and the cycle to be completed, probably by the end of
the year.
If
that is the case, what about the property sector that has seen much
buoyancy of late?
The
economic fundamentals are now making progress. The property markets of the
countries that provide stability and with strong currencies, will continue
to do well. These countries are a safe haven (security and money wise) for
investors who are now faced with limited choices. Hence, we can continue
to expect strong demand in these stable economies, like Singapore and Hong
Kong.
There
was much talk of ¡¥U¡¦, ¡¥V¡¦ or ¡¥L-shaped recoveries.
Do you still adhere to your view or do you think that has to change? Your
positive sentiment for the stock market was correct last year, how do you
read the market this year?
I
still retain my projection: Singapore¡¦s recovery will be U-shaped and
the world will recover on an L-shape curve. The equity market in Singapore
improved significantly in 2009. The recovery owes much to the Government
stimulus packages and good fundamentals in the economy. However,
cost-cutting measures in major corporations and industries are still in
operation, which will affect transportation that depend on first-class
travel, premium level hotels, the MICE business, etc. These sectors will
be like beer with no bubbles ¡V flat and the flatness will continue into
2010. This is because the governments of many countries had extended to
their banking communities with deposit guarantees right through till the
end of 2010. These deposit guarantees have actually reduced market
liquidity and obstructed the formation of larger bubbles that are
necessary for speculative instruments or forward spending.
I
reckon the local equity market to be able to maintain its current ¡¥real
value¡¦ and speculative stimulus can only materialise at the end 2010.
Master
Ong, thank you for your time and predictions, last but not least, what
advice would you share with readers for the Year of the Tiger.
If
I were to continue with my casino scenario outlined last year, I see those
who have not done well at the tables to be making an exit, with new
entries eagerly taking their places. But the economic fundamentals have
not recovered fully and those eager to ¡¥place their bets¡¦ may well be
disappointed. Their impatience will cause them to initiate rash and
erratic action. In
the Year of the Tiger, wherever or whatever position you find yourself in,
be it the stock market, or in property, or at the casino, it is best to
retreat, and free yourself from such a situation. This is my advice for
the Year of the Tiger, as this tiger is one that is ¡¥walking out of the
mountain¡¦.
